Bangkok Stocks Plunge: Pandemic Lows Hit Amid Economic Crisis
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) plummeted to pandemic-era lows in March 2025, hovering around 1,170 points. This followed a troubling decline: the index shed 4.8% in January and a further 8.4% in February. This dramatic downturn, occurring without a major crisis comparable to the pandemic, raises serious concerns about the underlying health of the Thai economy.
January witnessed a flurry of negative economic news, but February lacked any single catastrophic event to explain the SET’s continued slide. Market analysts at Tisco Securities attribute a key factor to the maturation of long-term equity funds, estimated at 180 billion baht in early February. This massive outflow created a ripple effect, exacerbating existing anxieties.
The downturn was further fueled by Delta Electronics' dramatic underperformance. The company’s disappointing results triggered panic selling, driving its stock price down over 40% in February and shaving more than 50 points off the SET index. Adding to the market’s woes, Airports of Thailand (AOT) announced a delay in payments from King Power, the duty-free operator. This sparked fears of a protracted payment dispute or further discounts for King Power, sending AOT shares tumbling almost 30% and further destabilizing the market. Despite a 34.4% jump in average daily turnover to 51.4 billion baht in February, the overall trend remained decidedly bearish.
The global trade landscape also cast a long shadow. Escalating trade tensions, fueled by US President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies, injected significant uncertainty into international markets. Tariffs imposed on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico, coupled with threats of reciprocal tariffs on nations with higher import duties on US goods, placed Thailand—known for its relatively high tariffs on some American products—directly in the crosshairs.
In a surprising move, the Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.0% in February, aiming to stimulate the economy. This intervention, however, failed to revitalize the stock market, underscoring the depth of the economic malaise. Disappointing fourth-quarter results for listed Thai companies—47% reported profits below market expectations—further dampened investor confidence and fueled predictions of downward revisions to earnings per share forecasts.
Despite the pessimism, Tisco Securities remains optimistic about select investment opportunities, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential inclusion in the new Thai ESGX funds. Their recommendations include Amata Corp (AMATA), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), Krungthai Bank (KTB), and Minor International (MINT). These companies boast strong earnings growth, robust dividend yields, and promising expansion plans, offering potential glimmers of hope.
The confluence of domestic economic concerns and global trade uncertainties created a perfect storm for the Thai stock market. While the future remains uncertain, investors are closely watching key indicators, hoping for signs of recovery and stability in the coming months.
