Bangkok Exports Boom, Defying US Trade Concerns
Thailand’s export sector continues its impressive growth, defying global economic headwinds and exceeding expectations. February saw a 14% year-on-year surge in exports, significantly outperforming the 9.7% predicted by a Reuters poll. This marks the eighth consecutive month of export growth, following January’s robust 13.6% increase. This sustained growth highlights the resilience of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, where exports play a crucial role.
Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan expressed satisfaction, highlighting the potential for 10% annual growth during the first quarter of 2025. He attributed this positive trend to healthy trade and investment flows, further bolstered by ongoing free trade negotiations. This optimistic outlook contrasts with the Ministry’s earlier, more conservative prediction of a 2–3% rise for the entire year. Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, echoed this optimism, suggesting the final figure could exceed the 3% forecast, particularly given the expected rebound in agricultural product exports in the coming quarter.
However, long-term prospects face uncertainty due to evolving US trade policy and the potential for new tariffs. Thailand currently enjoys a substantial $35.4 billion trade surplus with the United States (2024). This imbalance has attracted attention, prompting the Thai government to actively mitigate potential repercussions.
Proactively, Thailand is exploring strategies to increase imports from the US, aiming to reduce the trade gap and alleviate potential trade tensions. Discussions with the private sector have begun, and the government is eager to initiate formal trade talks with US officials. Vuttikrai Leewiraphan, the ministry’s permanent secretary, confirmed Thailand’s preparedness for these negotiations, with a comprehensive package addressing product-specific concerns, broader trade and investment issues, and security matters. Minister Pichai has previously expressed hope that Thailand can avoid the imposition of US tariffs.
February’s data reveals a nuanced picture. Exports to the US, Thailand’s largest market, increased substantially by 18.3% year-on-year. Shipments to China saw a remarkable 22.4% jump. However, rice exports, a key commodity, declined significantly by 33.1%. As the world’s second-largest rice exporter (after India), Thailand anticipates exporting 7.5 million tonnes of rice this year, down from 9.95 million tonnes in 2024. This decrease is partly attributed to India’s renewed presence in the global rice market.
February’s import figures also present a mixed bag. Imports grew by 4%, slightly below the projected 4.8%. This resulted in a $2 billion trade surplus, significantly exceeding the anticipated $0.7 billion. While robust export performance offers a promising short-term outlook, navigating the complex global trade landscape, particularly concerning US trade relations, will be crucial for maintaining Thailand’s economic momentum. The delicate balance of fostering growth while addressing trade imbalances will shape the trajectory of Thailand’s export sector in the coming months.
