Thailand Naval Drills: US Counters China, Calms Regional Jitters
The sight of the USS Santa Barbara slicing through the Gulf of Thailand, flanked by Thai and Canadian warships, presents a familiar tableau: multinational naval exercises in a region increasingly defined by China. But before succumbing to the well-worn narrative of geopolitical chess, pause. What if these drills aren’t just about containing China, but about containing the anxieties of a region caught in the crosscurrents of a shifting world order?
Captain Matt Scarlett, commodore of Destroyer Squadron 7, offers the expected reassurance: “This year, as we operate alongside our Royal Thai and Royal Canadian Navy partners, we reaffirm our commitment to strengthening maritime security cooperation and fostering a more stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.” This is the diplomatic language of stability, an attempt to project calm into a nervous system on high alert.
But the real questions cut deeper than whether cooperation is happening. They ask why this, why now, and, most importantly, at whose behest? We’ve spent decades parsing the “Thucydides Trap” — the inherent danger when a rising power challenges a dominant one. But perhaps we’re missing a crucial element: the agency of those nations caught in between. Is the US truly attempting to freeze China in place, or is it responding to the urgent, and often contradictory, demands of countries seeking to hedge their bets, wanting both the security guarantees of the US and the economic benefits of Chinese investment?
The history is telling. CARAT, or Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training, began in 1995, a period when Southeast Asian economies were booming, and the US role as a guarantor of regional stability was largely unchallenged. The end of the Cold War didn’t bring an end to power struggles; it simply shifted the terrain. Maintaining access to vital trade routes like the Malacca Strait became paramount. Now, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with its siren song of infrastructure investment and integrated trade networks, creates a more complex calculus. Think of Malaysia, which initially embraced BRI projects, only to later cancel or renegotiate deals amidst concerns about debt and sovereignty. These nations aren’t merely pawns; they’re active players navigating a treacherous landscape. The US isn’t just countering China; it’s offering an alternative pole in a multipolar world that many nations, wary of over-reliance on any single power, actively desire.
These exercises are hardly cost-free. Maintaining a forward-deployed squadron like Destroyer Squadron 7, a vital component of the U. S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, represents a substantial commitment of resources. Yet it extends beyond mere hardware. The soft power projections — the sports days, the band performances, the cultivation of personal connections highlighted by Khaosod — are arguably as crucial as the naval drills themselves. They are designed to foster trust and familiarity, weaving a web of relationships that can withstand the inevitable storms.
But let’s not overstate the case. As Michael E. O’Hanlon at the Brookings Institution has consistently warned, military exercises, however sophisticated, are no substitute for a comprehensive strategy. They may signal resolve, but they cannot address the underlying economic and political currents driving regional tensions. Moreover, forging consensus among a diverse array of partners, each with its own distinct strategic calculus, is a monumental undertaking. The Philippines, for example, has swung between closer alignment with the US and warmer relations with China, reflecting its own internal debates and geopolitical priorities.
Furthermore, an excessive focus on naval cooperation risks eclipsing other, equally pressing dimensions of regional security. The looming threat of climate change, the intensifying competition for scarce resources, and the pervasive challenge of transnational crime demand a more integrated and holistic approach. These challenges often fade into the background when geopolitical competition dominates the narrative. Consider the Mekong River, a vital artery for Southeast Asia, where Chinese dam construction has been accused of exacerbating droughts and threatening livelihoods downstream. This isn’t a problem that naval exercises can solve.
CARAT Thailand, in its 31st iteration, is more than just a military exercise. It is a complex, multi-layered performance with strategic goals and genuine partnership. Ultimately, understanding its persistent presence requires looking past the submarine warfare simulations and martial music. It’s about the intricate dance of power, influence, and hedging strategies that will define the future of the Indo-Pacific, one carefully choreographed exercise at a time. And whether that future is one of genuine stability, or simply a more intricate form of competition, remains to be seen.
