Thailand: Ousted Leader’s Return Shows Cycle of Instability Continues
Thailand, July 2025. It’s tempting to see the latest headlines — an overwhelming 80% of Thais wanting suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra out, according to a new Nida poll reported in the Bangkok Post — as simply more of the same old, same old. Another political crisis in a nation seemingly perpetually teetering. But that’s precisely what we shouldn’t do. This isn’t just a news story; it’s a Rorschach test for the failures of democratic consolidation in a society wrestling with deeply embedded, and arguably irreconcilable, power structures. The real kicker? Her most favoured replacement is none other than Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, the very man who led the 2014 coup that ousted her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra. The wheel turns, but does it ever really progress?
The numbers themselves are brutal. 42% want her to resign. 40% crave a fresh election. Only 15% want Paetongtarn to continue. And while nearly 28% couldn’t pick a favourite among the existing candidates, nearly 33% chose Gen Prayut. It’s a dizzying set of data points, less a mandate for any particular direction and more a cry for something different.
Of the respondents, 42.37% of wanted Ms Paetongtarn to resign so that the nation would have a new prime minister.
But to truly grasp the situation, we need to understand Thailand’s unique political ecology. It’s not just populism versus royalism versus military; it’s a complex interplay where each element constantly reinforces the others. The Shinawatra family, despite their repeated electoral victories, are consistently undermined by an establishment that views them as a threat to the traditional order. Accusations of corruption are ever-present, yes, but they often function as a smokescreen for a deeper anxiety: a perceived challenge to the ingrained hierarchies of Thai society. This poll isn’t simply a referendum on Paetongtarn; it’s a symptom of a system that seems incapable of accommodating truly popular movements without viewing them as existential threats.
The constant churn — elections, coups, constitutions written and rewritten — reflects a zero-sum game where compromise feels impossible. The 2017 constitution, for instance, wasn’t simply about limiting elected officials; it was about solidifying the military’s role as a permanent political player. Consider the unelected Senate, appointed largely by the military, which holds significant power in selecting the Prime Minister. This isn’t just checks and balances; it’s a deliberate skewing of the playing field. And while a recent poll indicates that another coup is not likely, Thailand has many other routes of institutional control.
The core issue here is the profound lack of trust in Thai institutions, both by the electorate and among the power brokers themselves. Paetongtarn’s current suspension, stemming from a leaked phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen (a plot twist worthy of a political thriller), underscores the precariousness of power. It’s a reminder that in Thailand, any seemingly secure position can be undermined with a whisper, a leak, or a strategically timed investigation. The Thai institutions lack the legitimacy, and arguably the intent, to truly foster democratic practices and uphold a system of fair representation.
'The rise and fall of political dynasties in Thailand demonstrate how the same problems of poverty and elite conflict contribute to instability," argues Dr. Duncan McCargo, a leading scholar of Thai politics. But perhaps the problem runs even deeper than elite conflict. Perhaps it’s a fundamental disagreement about the very definition of progress, with competing factions clinging to irreconcilable visions for the nation’s future. This poll isn’t just an indicator of Paetongtarn’s woes; it’s a stark reminder that Thailand remains locked in a cycle of instability, perpetually searching for a solution that seems perpetually out of reach.
