Thailand’s EV Boom: Can Green Dreams Power Equitable Growth?
Thailand’s electric vehicle (EV) boom isn’t just about swapping gas guzzlers for Teslas. It’s a microcosm of the agonizing, exhilarating global transition unfolding before us: the scramble for clean energy dominance, the tricky dance between state intervention and market forces, and the unavoidable fact that the future, however green, will be unevenly distributed. But it’s also a crucial test of whether a developing nation can leapfrog the old, fossil-fuel dependent economic order and forge a new path to prosperity — or whether it will simply replicate existing power dynamics with a new coat of green paint. The news out of Bangkok, Khaosod reports, is unequivocally positive: EV registrations are up 52% year-on-year, and investment in the sector has topped $4 billion. But digging deeper reveals the complexities.
Thailand is pulling levers that mirror strategies we’ve seen deployed, often clumsily, across the developed world. The EV3 and EV3.5 programs, offering excise duty incentives, are essentially subsidies aimed at jumpstarting domestic production and consumption. These incentives, now being revised to account for exports, highlight the ambition to become a regional, even a global, EV hub. But incentives are never neutral. They are choices, with winners and losers baked into their very design.
Narit Therdsteerasukdi, Secretary General of the BOI and EV Board, puts it succinctly:
'This update to the EV Board’s framework enhances both the effectiveness of EV3 and EV3.5 in regulating subsidy disbursement and the flexibility for manufacturers to plan their operations. It also strengthens Thailand’s potential as a regional and global EV manufacturing and export hub."
This is about more than environmentalism; it’s a bet on economic power. It’s about capturing a slice of the rapidly expanding EV value chain, from battery production to vehicle assembly. But it’s also about securing Thailand’s place in a world increasingly defined by technological competition and the strategic importance of critical minerals. What remains to be seen is how equitably these benefits will be distributed. Will this new wealth be concentrated in the hands of Bangkok’s elite, or will it trickle down to benefit the broader population?
The challenge, as Mariana Mazzucato has argued, is ensuring that the state, which often takes the initial risks in funding technological innovation, captures a fair share of the upside. Thailand is attempting this by attaching conditions to its incentives, but the true test will be in implementation and enforcement, as the new bank guarantee requirements demonstrate. Will these provisions effectively prevent subsidy abuse and ensure genuine domestic investment? Or will they become just another layer of bureaucratic complexity that favors larger, more established players, perpetuating the existing inequalities that have long plagued Thailand’s economic development?
Historically, Thailand’s automotive industry has been dominated by foreign manufacturers like Toyota and Isuzu, with a strong focus on internal combustion engine vehicles. For decades, Thailand served as a crucial manufacturing hub for these companies, producing vehicles primarily for export to other Southeast Asian markets. To pivot towards electric vehicles presents an opportunity to develop a new industrial ecosystem, potentially empowering local entrepreneurs and creating higher-skilled jobs. According to projections by the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT), the country aims to have 30% of total vehicle production be electric by 2030. However, achieving this requires overcoming existing infrastructure limitations and supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly regarding battery materials, of which Thailand has limited domestic reserves. This dependence on foreign sources for crucial battery components could simply replace one form of reliance (on imported oil) with another (on imported lithium or nickel), undermining Thailand’s long-term energy security.
The proliferation of charging stations — 3,720 public stations with 11,622 connections nationwide — is encouraging, but the distribution and accessibility of these stations will determine whether the EV revolution benefits all segments of society. Are these chargers primarily located in wealthier urban areas, reinforcing existing inequalities? Or are they being strategically deployed in rural regions, democratizing access to cleaner transportation? Consider the experience of countries like the US, where EV adoption has largely been concentrated among affluent, coastal populations. The devil, as always, is in the details.
Thailand’s EV push is a high-stakes gamble. It’s a testament to the growing understanding that climate action isn’t just about reducing emissions, it’s about reshaping economies and power structures. But it’s also a reminder that the path to a green future is fraught with political and economic pitfalls. The question is, will Thailand’s bet pay off for everyone, or just a select few? The answer will hinge not just on technological innovation, but on political will and a commitment to equitable development — a commitment that will be tested at every turn as powerful interests vie for control of this emerging industry. And beyond Thailand, this experiment holds vital lessons for other developing nations grappling with the same fundamental question: Can they truly build a greener future without simply reinforcing the inequalities of the past?
