Kuala Lumpur Summit: ASEAN Aims for 2045 Vision Despite Challenges
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s trip to Kuala Lumpur for the 46th ASEAN Summit, as detailed by the Bangkok Post, represents far more than a routine gathering of regional leaders. It’s a crucial moment to observe the interplay between ASEAN’s internal aspirations—embodied in the “Inclusivity and Sustainability” theme and the 2045 ASEAN Community Vision—and the external pressures exerted by a rapidly changing global landscape. This year’s summit, as detailed in this recent report, also highlights the complexities inherent in achieving regional consensus, especially when diverse economic and political interests collide.
The focus on “Inclusivity and Sustainability” sounds promising, but it’s worth interrogating what these terms mean in practice. Sustainability, for example, can signify a commitment to renewable energy and climate action, but also a desire to maintain the status quo in resource allocation, potentially benefiting some member states more than others. Inclusivity, similarly, could point towards greater economic and political integration, but also raises difficult questions about labor mobility, human rights, and the thorny issue of Myanmar, represented at the summit only by its permanent secretary for foreign affairs—a clear sign of the divisions within the organization regarding how to address the ongoing crisis.
The endorsement of the 2045 ASEAN Community Vision is the summit’s centerpiece. But grand visions are easier to declare than to implement. The key questions are about the mechanisms and incentives ASEAN will establish to ensure this vision translates into tangible outcomes.
Consider some of the fundamental challenges:
- Economic disparities: How will ASEAN bridge the gap between its wealthier, more developed members like Singapore and Brunei, and its less developed neighbors like Cambodia and Laos? Will there be sufficient resource transfer and technical assistance to ensure equitable growth?
- Political diversity: Can ASEAN maintain its commitment to non-interference in internal affairs while simultaneously promoting democratic values and human rights? The situation in Myanmar presents a clear test case, and the current approach appears to be largely ineffective.
- Geopolitical pressures: ASEAN finds itself caught between the competing interests of China and the United States. Balancing these relationships while maintaining its own strategic autonomy is a delicate act, requiring shrewd diplomacy and a clear understanding of its own leverage.
The inclusion of leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang signals ASEAN’s proactive approach to diversifying its partnerships. The meeting with the GCC, driven by Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, this year’s ASEAN Chair, could open avenues for investment and energy cooperation. However, it also invites scrutiny, especially from those concerned about the human rights records of some GCC member states.
The presence of Li Qiang is strategically important. China’s economic influence in the region is undeniable, and ASEAN countries need to navigate this relationship carefully to maximize the benefits while minimizing the risks of dependence. This includes concerns about debt sustainability, fair trade practices, and the protection of intellectual property.
ASEAN’s long-term success hinges not only on its ability to articulate ambitious visions but also on its capacity to build robust institutions, foster genuine collaboration, and address the complex challenges that lie beneath the surface of regional cooperation. The devil, as always, is in the details.
Ms. Paetongtarn’s participation in various ASEAN–GCC summits and bilateral events like the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Declaration are all important components, but they amount to theater unless coupled with deeper structural changes and a genuine commitment to addressing the underlying tensions that continue to define the region.
