ASEAN grapples with China’s Influence and Myanmar Crisis in Jakarta
The upcoming ASEAN summit in Malaysia, as outlined in this recent report, underscores the increasing complexity of Southeast Asian geopolitics. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s agenda—focusing on the civil war in Myanmar, South China Sea disputes, and US tariff hikes—reveals the multifaceted challenges facing the region as it navigates a world of intensifying great power competition. More than just individual crises, the summit exposes the inherent limitations of ASEAN’s consensus-based approach in the face of starkly divergent national interests and external pressures.
The U. S.-China dynamic looms large. ASEAN nations, many heavily reliant on exports to the United States, are feeling the pinch of protectionist measures. Even with a temporary reprieve, Donald Trump’s tariff policies have created uncertainty and pushed countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam toward hurried trade negotiations. Anwar’s statement that the U. S. has promised to review Malaysia’s case “sympathetically” highlights the ad hoc, transactional nature of these relationships—a far cry from a stable, predictable trade environment.
ASEAN’s ambition to negotiate with the U. S. as a bloc is laudable, but the reality is far more fragmented. Different levels of economic development, political systems, and security alignments mean that a unified position is often difficult to achieve. This fragmentation is further exacerbated by the allure of closer ties with China, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s interest in deepening its relationship with China further complicates the picture, suggesting a broader realignment of global economic and political power.
The situation in Myanmar presents perhaps the starkest challenge to ASEAN’s credibility. The organization’s policy of barring Myanmar’s military chief, Gen. Ming Aung Hlaing, from meetings reflects a recognition of the junta’s illegitimacy. However, this stance has been largely ineffective in resolving the conflict. Anwar’s meetings with both the military and the opposition National Unity Government, even if framed around humanitarian aid after the devastating earthquake, are a tacit acknowledgment that a solution requires engaging with all parties, regardless of their human rights record.
Here are some of the key implications of this complex situation:
- Erosion of ASEAN Centrality: The organization’s ability to act as a neutral arbiter and regional leader is being undermined by its internal divisions and the growing influence of external powers.
- Economic Vulnerability: Reliance on exports makes ASEAN countries susceptible to protectionist policies and trade wars. Diversification of trade partners and strengthening intra-ASEAN trade are crucial.
- Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing conflict in Myanmar is causing immense suffering and displacement, requiring a more robust and coordinated response.
- Geopolitical Risk: The South China Sea disputes, if not managed carefully, could escalate into a major regional conflict.
ASEAN’s strategic challenge is clear: to navigate the treacherous waters of great power competition while addressing its own internal weaknesses. Its long-term success will depend on its ability to forge a stronger sense of collective identity, develop a more coherent foreign policy, and resist the temptation to prioritize short-term economic gains over long-term strategic interests.
Downplaying territorial disputes in the South China Sea, as Anwar appears to do, risks further emboldening China and undermining the rule of law. While engagement with both the U. S. and China is necessary, ASEAN must be careful not to become a pawn in their rivalry. Building “economic resilience” through deeper links with other partners like India and the EU is a step in the right direction, but it requires a fundamental shift in mindset and a willingness to challenge the status quo. ASEAN faces a pivotal moment; its future relevance hinges on its ability to adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
