Thailand Balances Alliances Amid Trump’s Tariffs, Eyes Gas Strategy
The tremors from Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”—more accurately described as “Tariff Tuesday”—are being felt across the globe, and Thailand, like many nations, is grappling with the aftershocks. The recent tariff hikes, impacting over 50 countries as reported in this Khaosod English article, have thrust the country into a complex strategic dilemma: how to protect its interests without provoking an unpredictable president with a penchant for impulsive action.
Thailand’s approach, as articulated by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s advisor Supavud Saicheua, is a delicate dance of calculated restraint. Rather than rushing headlong into negotiations, Thailand is opting for a more measured response, prioritizing the cultivation of strategic alliances, particularly within the American agricultural sector. This focus is no accident. It’s a savvy recognition of the political calculus at play in the US, acknowledging the influence wielded by farm states, a key constituency for Trump and the Republican Party. By fostering relationships with these stakeholders, Thailand hopes to build bridges toward broader tariff discussions, especially around crucial agricultural imports like feed corn, a product where domestic production falls short of demand.
The logic, at its core, is about leverage. Thailand is playing a long game, recognizing that premature concessions would squander its bargaining power. But this isn’t simply a passive waiting game. Thailand is actively constructing what Supavud describes as a “ladder,” offering avenues for de-escalation through proposals mirroring South Korea’s approach—signaling interest in importing US natural gas, potentially offering a politically palatable off-ramp for the Trump administration if the economic pain of the tariffs becomes too acute.
This measured response underscores a fundamental challenge in the Trump era: the inherent unpredictability of policymaking. Trump’s justifications for the tariffs—addressing the US trade deficit, reducing the budget deficit fueled by tax cuts, and reviving domestic manufacturing—reveal a mercantilist worldview that prioritizes short-term gains over long-term global stability.
The implications of this worldview are far-reaching:
- Global trade disruption: These tariffs risk triggering a cascade of retaliatory measures, creating a volatile and unpredictable trade environment.
- Economic instability: The potential for a US recession, exacerbated by these protectionist policies, could have ripple effects across the global economy.
- Political polarization: The politicization of trade further divides nations, making collaborative solutions harder to achieve.
“We have to accept the fact that Trump is quick-tempered and acts emotionally.”
This sobering assessment by independent economist Somchai Pakapasvivat highlights the tightrope Thailand, and indeed the world, must walk. The path forward requires a combination of strategic patience, shrewd negotiation, and a keen awareness of the political dynamics driving these disruptive policies. It demands a clear-eyed understanding of the systemic risks at play, recognizing that in a globalized world, economic isolationism is not a path to prosperity, but a recipe for instability.
