Myanmar Junta Gambles on Peace Amidst Earthquake Diplomacy Efforts
The optics are fraught, to say the least. Min Aung Hlaing, the general who seized power in Myanmar in 2021, is in Thailand, ostensibly to discuss earthquake relief following the devastating March tremor. He’s meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and, lurking just offstage, her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It’s a tangled web of regional politics, humanitarian crisis, and, as recent reporting suggests, a potential backchannel for peace talks in a nation spiraling toward collapse. You can read more about these developments in this recent report.
The earthquake itself has deepened an already dire humanitarian situation. Millions were already displaced by the ongoing conflict between the military junta and resistance forces. Now, with food shortages looming and the public health system teetering, the need for aid is acute. But the question isn’t just how to get aid in, it’s who controls its distribution. The military, accused of weaponizing aid in the past, presents itself as the only viable channel. The resistance, understandably, sees this as a power grab, a way to consolidate control under the guise of humanitarian concern. And in this tense atmosphere, the specter of “disaster diplomacy” arises — the hope that a shared crisis can create an opening for dialogue, even peace.
The involvement of Thaksin Shinawatra, a controversial figure in his own right, adds another layer of complexity. Serving as an informal advisor to Anwar, who currently chairs ASEAN, Thaksin has been pursuing back-channel diplomacy with the junta. This approach carries significant risk. It could legitimize a brutal regime and undermine the efforts of the resistance. It could also, if handled delicately, provide a crucial off-ramp from violence.
The core challenge here is the utter breakdown of trust:
- The military doesn’t trust the resistance, seeing them as a threat to its power.
- The resistance doesn’t trust the military, having witnessed its brutality firsthand.
- The international community doesn’t trust the military to deliver aid impartially.
- And the people of Myanmar, caught in the crossfire, trust no one.
This is the tragic calculus of a broken state. Every actor is pursuing their own interests, often at cross-purposes, while the needs of the Burmese people remain unmet. The earthquake, a natural disaster, has become entangled in a deeply human-made crisis.
The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, meant to be a roadmap to peace, has been largely ignored by the junta. Min Aung Hlaing’s recent attendance at the BIMSTEC summit was seen by many as an attempt to gain international legitimacy, not a genuine commitment to dialogue. Whether this week’s meetings represent a real shift, a cynical ploy, or simply another missed opportunity remains to be seen. The stakes, however, are undeniably high. The future of Myanmar, and the lives of millions, hangs in the balance.
