Thailand Exports Boom, Defying Global Economic Slowdown
Thailand’s export sector continued its strong performance in January, marking seven consecutive months of growth. Shipments surged 13.6% year-on-year, reaching US$25.3 billion, according to the Commerce Ministry. This positive trend persists despite global economic uncertainty. While imports also rose 7.9% to US$27.6 billion, resulting in a US$1.88 billion trade deficit.
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, provided context. He highlighted the real sector’s strength. Excluding volatile commodities (gold, oil-related products, and arms), this sector still showed an impressive 11.4% year-on-year increase, indicating a solid foundation for continued growth. Contributing factors include expanding trading partner economies, inflation stabilization at target levels, and increased manufacturing activity.
Sectoral performance varied. Agro-industrial exports grew 3% year-on-year, while agricultural shipments contracted slightly (2.2%). Strong performers included rubber (up 45.5%), wheat products and prepared foods (19.5%), canned and processed fruit (13.4%), and pet food (13%). The global pet food market boom likely boosted this sector. Conversely, rice, fresh fruit, tapioca products, and canned vegetables experienced declines.
The industrial sector also thrived, with exports expanding 17% year-on-year. This was driven by strong demand for computers and computer parts, gems and jewelry (excluding gold), rubber products, machinery, and air conditioning systems. However, exports of automobiles and auto parts, iron and steel products, and telephone equipment softened, potentially due to shifting global demand and supply chain disruptions.
Mr. Poonpong expressed cautious optimism for the first quarter of 2025, anticipating continued export growth as trading partners replenish inventories amid US trade policy uncertainty. This presents opportunities for Thai exporters. He also highlighted potential increased exports to the US as it diversifies import sources and reduces reliance on China.
However, challenges remain. Uncertainty surrounding potential US trade policies, including the scope and targets of potential tariffs, is a key concern. Additional factors, such as potential US inflation and fluctuating energy prices due to Russia’s oil export restrictions, further complicate the outlook.
Chaichan Charoensuk, Chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, shared a similar outlook, forecasting 7–10% export growth in the first quarter. He emphasized increased trade activity among nations as a key driver and urged the government to address trade deficits, particularly with China—a concern echoed by the private sector. The coming months will be crucial for Thailand’s export sector, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
