Bangkok Braces for Volatility Amidst Asian Market Tariff Surge
Asian equities largely rallied on renewed optimism surrounding potential U. S. tariff negotiations. News that reciprocal U. S. tariffs might be weeks away from implementation fueled hopes for a diplomatic resolution, boosting market sentiment. However, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) experienced a volatile week, fluctuating between 1,262.41 and 1,298.72 points before closing at 1,272.10—a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. Average daily turnover reached 47.59 billion baht.
Investor behavior presented a mixed picture. Retail investors were net buyers of 2.74 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 702.13 million baht. Conversely, foreign investors were net sellers of 1.93 billion baht, with institutional investors also selling 1.51 billion baht. This dynamic highlights the market’s cautious optimism.
This market movement stemmed from President Donald Trump’s announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy targeting countries imposing higher import taxes on U. S. goods. These tariffs, scheduled for implementation around April 1st, initially sparked concern, amplified by the expansion of the 25% U. S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum to all countries earlier that week. Adding to the complex global economic landscape, January’s U. S. inflation rate exceeded expectations at 3.0%, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Meanwhile, China’s economic data was mixed, with rising consumer prices but contracting producer prices, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector.
Beyond trade tensions, several significant corporate events influenced market activity. Nissan and Honda shares surged after abandoning merger talks; Nissan unveiled a restructuring plan that could attract partners like Foxconn and KKR. Chevron announced substantial job cuts, while Sony raised its profit forecast due to strong performance in its gaming division. Tech giants also made headlines: Alibaba stock soared on reports of collaboration with Apple on AI features, and OpenAI rejected a major takeover bid led by Elon Musk.
The coming week features numerous key economic data releases expected to shape market sentiment. These include interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, trade figures from Japan and the Eurozone, UK unemployment data, Canadian inflation, and U. S. manufacturing and services PMI. These indicators will provide further insights into the global economic outlook and potentially influence market direction.
In Thailand, the potential shift from Long-Term Equity Funds (LTFs) to Thai ESG Funds is being closely monitored. Analysts suggest this could attract both domestic and foreign investment, focusing on companies with strong Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ratings. Analysts also recommend focusing on value stocks with solid fundamentals and growth potential, such as CPALL, BDMS, MINT, and others.
The SET index’s volatility continues, with analysts offering differing opinions on support and resistance levels, indicating near-term uncertainty. Given the complex and fluid global economic landscape, investors are urged to exercise caution and carefully consider their investment strategies. The interplay of global trade dynamics, corporate performance, and upcoming economic data will likely shape market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.
